B. Hawighorst
17 years old·CBCDM
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
contract until 2028
60
now
82
max
Where is he most likely to go? 662 clubs ranked
Three things have to be true at once, so they multiply: can they afford him × do they want him × does he want to go there. That last one is what a buying club’s shortlist does not capture — it is why the best player in the Bundesliga ends up at Bayern rather than at whoever needs him most.
OddsClubOVRTheir manBudgetAppealStep
26–50 of 662
Market value €725K · wage €5K/wk
Where he has played
From SoFIFA’s squad updates, one per game edition. A club he left long ago is a more likely return than one he just left.
What is he worth to…
10sorted by “Balanced” · horizon 3 years · score at CB
Asking price€1.1M
Wage€5K per week
Their leaguePro League
Their place for him#98 of 662
They usually pay€4.1M median
In the pressnothing
from a much bigger club (79 → 74)
Do you want him
46these may trade off against each otherRight now
What he adds to this seasonQuality40
Gain now0
Later
What he is worth over your horizonPotential51
Gain later54
Age51
Fit
Whether he is the right typeProfile73
Versatility74
Cost
What you get per euroPrice100
× Can it happen
67%one impossible signal sinks itMoney
Can you pay himWages100
The step
Would he come down to youClub50
League62
Stature100
The route
Do players make this moveCountry route35
And these pull on it too:
Off the beaten path×0.94
players rarely move from that league to this one
Rare here×0.35
this market almost never signs players from that country
The final score is appeal × feasibility. The left half may trade off against itself — an expensive talent makes up for his price with potential. The right half may not: if one thing is impossible, the transfer is impossible, however good the rest looks.